LMCRB's RET Increase Forecasts Comments:

Typically, The Township Management Over budgets for annual costs, and then when the over budgeted amount is not spent, it is called "Cost Savings".  The spending estimates below are net the over budgeting amount. The spending and revenue forecasts are the basis for the RET increase in the chart.  LMCRB hopes that the township would limit it's spending increase for 2010 and beyond, however, baring any additional revenue streams, the gap would have to be paid for by a RET increase or new tax, such as Earned Income Tax.

Our Best guess for RET increase for 2011 is based on the revenue and spending assumptions below.  Reduced spending increases reduces the RET increase.  Please note that our tax increase forecast is supported by the inability of the the commissioners to compromise on a cost saving plan.  Labor, Pension, Heath Care, and other personel benefits are the largest cost driver.  The second cost driver that continues to grow is the Capital Improvements Program.

LMCRB forecast for 2009 and 2010

Forecast Year	2010	2011	2012
Revenues with Tax increase - LMCRB	50.7	56.2	58.7
Spending	52.7	55.8	58.1
Spending Growth over previous Yr. (Forecast to Forecast)	2.7%	5.90%	4.00%
LMCRB Forecast RE Tax increase (Dec. 16. 2009)		12-16% or Earned I. Tax	7%-8%

Township Real Estate Tax Increase Forecasts (Mainline Life, July 23, 2008)

Year        Tax Increase

2010        12.2-18.4%

2011        5.5-5.6%

2012        5.0-5.4%

Source:  Lower Merion Township Commissioners, Mainline Life, July 23, 2008

The Five Year Spending and Revenue Forecast (General Fund):

	Forecast 2008	Forecast 2009	Forecast 2010	Forecast 2011	Forecast 2012
Beginning Fund Balance (un designated)	$11.2	$11.1	$ 9.0	$ 5.3	$ (0.2)
Revenues	50.7	50.6	52.1	53.3	54.5
Spending	50.8	52.7	55.8	58.8	62.1
Spending Growth over previous Yr. (Forecast to Forecast)	2.9%	3.75%	5.44%	5.4%	5.6%

Source: Lower Merion Township, 2009 Proposed Budget - 5 year Forecast

LMT remarks about the Forecasts:

The Five Year Forecast is a tool we can use to recognize and acknowledge certain fiscal trends and realities. The further one looks into the future, the less accuracy is expected. The forecast presumes current policies of the Township. No attempt has been made to assume any changes in Board of Commissioners’ policy, service delivery levels, programs, staffing, the general economy, healthcare trends, unfunded mandates, reassessment, law changes, societal evolution, unexpected repairs, unusual weather patterns, and so forth.

The estimates contained in this 2009 Proposed Budget document include estimated actual projections for the current year (2008), upcoming budget year (2009) and the three years (2010, 2011 and 2012) that follow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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