Lower Merion Citizens for Responsible Budgeting
Real Estate Tax Increase Forecasts
Year Tax Increase
2010 12.2-18.4%
2011 5.5-5.6%
2012 5.0-5.4%
Source: Lower Merion Township Commissioners, Mainline Life, July 23, 2008
The Five Year Spending and Revenue Forecast (General Fund):
| Forecast 2008 |
Forecast 2009 |
Forecast 2010 |
Forecast 2011 |
Forecast 2012 |
|
| Beginning Fund Balance (un designated) | $11.2 | $11.1 | $ 9.0 | $ 5.3 | $ (0.2) |
| Revenues | 50.7 | 50.6 | 52.1 | 53.3 | 54.5 |
| Spending | 50.8 | 52.7 | 55.8 | 58.8 | 62.1 |
Spending Growth over previous Yr. (Forecast to Forecast) |
2.9% | 3.75% | 5.44% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
Source: Lower Merion Township, 2009 Proposed Budget - 5 year Forecast
LMT remarks about the Forecasts:
The Five Year Forecast is a tool we can use to recognize and acknowledge certain fiscal trends and realities. The further one looks into the future, the less accuracy is expected. The forecast presumes current policies of the Township. No attempt has been made to assume any changes in Board of Commissioners’ policy, service delivery levels, programs, staffing, the general economy, healthcare trends, unfunded mandates, reassessment, law changes, societal evolution, unexpected repairs, unusual weather patterns, and so forth.
The estimates contained in this 2009 Proposed Budget document include estimated actual projections for the current year (2008), upcoming budget year (2009) and the three years (2010, 2011 and 2012) that follow.
LMCRB's RET Increase Forecasts Comments:
Typically, The Township Management Over budgets for annual costs, and then when the over budgeted amount is not spent, it is called "Cost Savings". The spending estimates above are net the over budgeting amount. We don't know if the above forecasts for spending are accurate, but it is the basis for the RET increase in the chart above. LMCRB would hope that the township would limit it's spending to the 2.9% actual increase for 2008, however, baring any additional revenue streams, the gap would have to be paid for by a RET increase.
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Our Best guess for RET increases through 2012 is based on the revenue and spending assumptions below. Reduced spending increases would greatly reduce the RET increases.
| Forecast Year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Revenues with Tax increase - LMCRB | 50.7 | 50.6 | 55.8 | 58.8 | 62.1 |
| Spending | 50.8 | 52.7 | 55.8 | 58.8 | 62.1 |
Gap |
.1 | 2.1 mill | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Reduction of Reserves |
.1 | 1.1 mill | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spending Growth over previous Yr. (Forecast to Forecast) |
2.9% | 3.75% | 5.44% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| LMCRB Forecast RE Tax increase | 2.0% | 14% | 6% | 5% |
LMCRB forecast assuming lower spending in 2009 and 2010
| Forecast Year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Revenues with Tax increase - LMCRB | 50.7 | 50.6 | 53.1 |
| Spending | 50.8 | 52.3 | 54.4 |
Spending Growth over previous Yr. (Forecast to Forecast) |
2.9% | 3.00% | 4.00% |
| LMCRB Forecast RE Tax increase | 2.0% | 4.0% to 6.0% |